Studio Covid – Dall’Australia gli scienziati analizzano uno studio sconvolgente sui casi reali. Le ultime notizie dal mondo sul coronavirus tutte le ultime notizie dell’ultim’ora aggiornate.
Un iceberg non ancora del tutto visibile.
Il numero reale di infezioni da Covid-19 è probabilmente molto più alto di quello che viene segnalato in molte nazioni in tutto il mondo.
Secondo una stima basata sull’analisi dei dati di Stati Uniti, Australia, Canada, Corea del Sud e 11 paesi in Europa – Italia inclusa – in media i casi reali sarebbero sei volte maggiori rispetto a quelli ‘censiti’.
Me se in Corea del Sud il numero effettivo di infezioni è risultato 2,6 volte superiore rispetto alle cifre riportate, in Italia i casi reali sarebbero ben 17,5 volte superiore a quello ufficiale.
Insomma, il nostro Paese è ben lontano dai primi posti quanto a capacità di tracciamento.
Lo studio, realizzato da un team di scienziati australiani e pubblicato su ‘Royal Society Open Science’, utilizza un nuovo modello, che avrebbe consentito ai ricercatori di prevedere il tasso di infezione “reale” per ciascun paese a partire dal dato dei decessi collegati a Covid-19.
Secondo i loro risultati, alla fine di agosto il tasso di infezione della popolazione era, in media, sei volte superiore ai casi segnalati.
Studio Covid, le analisi degli gli scienziati australiani
“A differenza delle infezioni segnalate sulla base dei test Rna, il backcasting non dipende dalla copertura o dall’efficacia dei regimi di test, che possono essere molto diversi”, scrivono gli autori. Ciò significa che questo metodo è molto più facile da usare a livello regionale, nazionale o anche internazionale.
Non solo. Secondo i ricercatori, il metodo risente meno delle differenze di tracciamento.
“Abbiamo analizzato le statistiche su quante persone erano morte a causa di Covid-19 in un determinato Paese. E poi abbiamo lavorato a ritroso per vedere quante persone avrebbero dovuto essere state infettate per arrivare a quel numero di morti”, afferma il data scientist Steven Phipps di Ikigai Research in Australia.
Alcune nazioni sono risultate più efficaci nel segnalare queste infezioni rispetto ad altre. In Corea del Sud, il numero effettivo di infezioni è risultato 2,6 volte superiore rispetto alle cifre riportate. Mentre in Italia il numero di casi reale sarebbe ben 17,5 volte superiore a quello ufficiale.
In generale, da marzo, i paesi di tutto il mondo sono migliorati nell’introdurre i test specifici. Così come nell’educare il pubblico sui sintomi e trovare modi sempre più accurati per rilevare e tracciare l’infezione.
Nonostante questo miglioramento, i numeri internazionali continuano a rimanere indietro rispetto alla realtà, sostengono gli autori.
Anche in Australia, che ha uno dei migliori livelli di rilevamento tra tutti i 15 paesi studiati, i ricercatori affermano che il tasso di infezione potrebbe essere ancora quasi cinque volte superiore a quanto riportato.
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