Home Covid Variante inglese, Vespignani: “Ci restano solo 15 giorni poi prevarrà”

Variante inglese, Vespignani: “Ci restano solo 15 giorni poi prevarrà”

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alessandro-vespignani

Variante inglese – Quasi il 20% all’inizio di febbraio.Intorno al 25% oggi. A fine mese la variante inglese avrà raggiunto il 50%, cioè sarà presente in un nuovo contagiato su due. A marzo il tavolo sarà tutto suo.
«Arriverà a essere prevalente, grazie alla maggiore capacità di infettare. Sars-Cov-2 e la variante inglese diventeranno tutt’uno. Per i ceppi del passato ci sarà sempre meno spazio».

Alessandro Vespignani, l’epidemiologo computazionale che dirige il laboratorio di modellistica dei sistemi biologici alla Northeastern University di Boston, ha tracciato l’andamento della variante inglese in varie città europee, fra cui Roma e Milano. Ecco le sue parole in una intervista ai microfoni di Repubblica. L’aumento da un lato «non si tradurrà automaticamente nelle curve ripide viste in Gran Bretagna.Molto dipenderà da noi e dalla capacità di mantenere l’Rt sotto controllo».

Ma dall’altro, prosegue Vespignani, «le prime notizie che arrivano dalla Gran Bretagna sulla sua severità non sembrano tranquillizzanti. Dati preliminari di questi giorni indicano che possa causare una malattia più grave».

Variante inglese, le parole di Vespignani



Si può domare il ceppo inglese? «L’aumento della prevalenza non si può frenare, è solo questione di tempo. Essendo più contagioso, il ceppo inglese tenderà a soppiantare gli altri. Ma la prevalenza è solo un numero relativo: indica quanti dei nuovi contagi sono causati dalla variante britannica. Quel che possiamo fare è ridurre il numero assoluto dei casi. Se riusciremo a tenerlo basso, la situazione resterà contenibile. Ma è importante agire adesso. Le prossime due settimane saranno quelle in cui probabilmente la prevalenza andrà dal 25% al 50%».

Cosa dobbiamo fare? «Essere cauti con le riaperture.Guardare con attenzione ogni rialzo dell’indice Rt. E monitorare la diffusione delle varianti. La Gran Bretagna effettua il sequenziamento del genoma del 5% dei tamponi positivi. È un obiettivo ambizioso, ma un po’ più d’ambizione è quel che serve anche oggi in Italia. La rete di monitoraggio va fatta ora. Dobbiamo sapere come si muove l’epidemia e in caso adeguare i vaccini alle varianti.Un buon laboratorio per il monitoraggio genetico, anche in futuro, ci permetterà di tenere sotto controllo eventuali malattie emergenti e la stessa influenza».

In base al campionamento del 3-4 febbraio la prevalenza della variante inglese era al 17,8%.«Le nostre curve, disegnate prima di quel risultato, danno un andamento analogo. Questi monitoraggi andrebbero ripetuti tutte le settimane o 10 giorni. Lo si fa in Gran Bretagna, in Francia e Danimarca».

.La variante inglese si diffonde di più fra i bambini? «Non lo sappiamo. È stato osservato un certo aumento di casi, ma è vero che molte scuole sono state riaperte».

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