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Coronavirus Crisanti: “Contagi reali sono il doppio! Dati falsati da test rapidi e misure insufficienti”

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Coronavirus Crisanti – Lancia l’allarme il professor Andrea Crisanti sull’emergenza coronavirus in Italia: le parole sulla situazione attuale. Le ultime notizie sul Covid dall’Italia e dal mondo tutte le ultime news aggiornate.

Il numero reale di positivi al coronavirus in Italia? La stima del report dei servizi segreti italiani secondo cui i contagi reali sarebbero circa il doppio di quelli rilevati “penso sia realistica. Secondo questa lettura dovremmo viaggiare intorno ai 30mila casi al giorno che è ragionevole, considerando anche il numero di decessi che abbiamo. Le persone che vengono a mancare infatti sono circa l’1.5-2% del totale degli infetti”. A dirlo è Andrea Crisanti, direttore del dipartimento di Microbiologia dell’Università di Padova, ospite a “Buongiorno” su Sky TG24. Secondo Crisanti  “il numero di positivi dipende dal tipo di tamponi e la situazione è complicata dal numero dei test rapidi, che sono uno strumento di confusione di massa. La percentuale di positivi nei test rapidi è molto più bassa che nei molecolari, quindi questi test qualche problema ce l’hanno. Non si risolve il problema del controllo della trasmissione sul territorio con i test rapidi”.

“Con i tamponi a bassa sensibilità è tutto falsato”

“Il numero dei positivi – spiega Crisanti – dipende anche dal tipo di tamponi che si fanno: se si utilizza uno strumento a bassa sensibilità è chiaro che se ne perdono un po’. Se poi si conteggiano i tamponi fatti in farmacia e quelli fatti come strumento di agibilità sociale è chiaro che viene tutto falsato, perché tra questi la frequenza dei negativi è molto superiore rispetto ai tamponi fatti per cercare i contatti”.

“Misure non sufficienti per fermare il virus”

Perché i contagi non calano? “Non ci sono misure sufficienti per farli calare – risponde Crisanti – Abbiamo raggiunto un equilibrio tra la capacità del virus di trasmettersi e la nostra di bloccarlo e rimaniamo su questi livelli, in equilibrio”. E aggiunge: “Dipende dal risultato che si vuole raggiungere: se si vogliono mantenere le attività economiche in piedi e allo stesso tempo accettare un certo livello di trasmissione e pagare un prezzo di 500 morti al giorno, la cosa sta funzionando”. Per il docente di Microbiologia “le misure non si realizzano nel giro di 1-2 giorni. Serviva costruire un efficiente sistema di tracciamento e sorveglianza quando i numeri si erano abbassati. Questa cosa doveva essere fatta a maggio-giugno”.

“Blocco export vaccini Europa? Precedente pericoloso”

Crisanti non è d’accordo sull’eventuale blocco dell’export dei vaccini AstraZeneca ventilato dall’Europa. Per il docente sarebbe “un precedente pericoloso che si presta a misure speculari da altre nazioni. Qualsiasi atteggiamento protezionista ha sempre portato effetti relativi nelle relazioni tra Stati. Si giustificherebbe il comportamento degli Usa di bloccare l’export di Moderna o della Germania di bloccare l’export di Pfizer”.

“Monitoraggio Iss con Rt è macchinoso”

Crisanti esprime perplessita anche sul sistema di monitoraggio dell’Iss che determina la mappa a colori dell’Italia, a seconda del rischio di contagio. “Il sistema di monitoraggio con l’Rt dipende in gran parte dalla capacità di fare tracciamento e verificare l’inizio della sintomatologia. Questo non è facile da fare quando i casi sono molti – spiega – C’è poi un altro problema: l’Rt è un indice che ci dice quale è stata la trasmissione una settimana prima, quindi non fotografa la situazione attuale. Sarebbe stato meglio basarsi sull’incidenza, sul numero dei casi giornalieri. Questo valore permette di calcolare indirettamente l’Rt, è leggermente meno preciso però riflette la situazione attuale”. “Le Regioni – aggiunge Crisanti – si sono strenuamente battute contro l’utilizzo dell’incidenza per calcolare l’Rt, perché sull’incidenza non ci sono dubbi sull’interpretazione”.

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Fonte: SkyTg24

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