Terza fase Covid – Alberto Gerli, ingegnere, laureato a Padova e specializzato in Texas, studia con un modello matematico sempre più raffinato l’andamento dell’epidemia da più di un anno, ed è diventato un punto di riferimento per alcuni tra i più insigni medici ed epidemiologi lombardi, con i quali ha firmato molte pubblicazioni scientifiche. Ecco le sue parole in un’intervista al Corriere della Sera:
Quanto durerà la terza ondata?
«Quaranta giorni. Su questo ci sono pochi dubbi. Abbiamo analizzato oltre trenta “curve”, relative alla prima e alla seconda fase, dalla Cina all’Europa. E la durata, fino al picco, è sempre quella».
Dunque, fino a quando?
«Considerando che si può identificare l’inizio della “Fase 3” intorno all’8 febbraio, si arriverà con una continua crescita fino al 20 marzo».
Se la curva dura comunque quaranta giorni, che senso hanno gli interventi di contenimento?
«Dipende da quando partono. Oltre a sapere che, una volta innescata, la curva del contagio sale per 40 giorni, sappiamo anche con certezza quando dovremmo intervenire: nei primi 17 giorni. In questo ristretto periodo iniziale, gli interventi di contenimento hanno un’eccezionale efficacia e possono davvero modificare l’andamento della curva».
Terza fase Covid, ecco quanto durerà per l’ingegner Gerli
Nei primi 17 giorni le misure di contenimento hanno grande efficacia Dopo non hanno effetto E ciò che viene dopo?
«Non ha effetto fino al raggiungimento del picco, lo avrà in seguito, nel determinare quanto rapidamente scenderà la curva. Ne abbiamo una chiarissima dimostrazione con il lockdown più rigido finora sperimentato al mondo, quello disposto in Cina in “Fase 1”. Neppure quello ha influenzato la crescita della curva quando ormai si era innescata. Passati i primi 17 giorni, l’epidemia segue il suo andamento naturale per la durata di 40 giorni».
Il modello degli interventi con i «colori» è efficace?
«Si basa su parametri scientifici validi, ma su una fotografia di due settimane prima. Dunque, ed è sempre una valutazione scientifica, sconta un costante ritardo».
Si può prevedere l’evoluzione della terza ondata?
«Su tutta Italia, da qui al 20 marzo, ci aspettiamo circa 600 mila contagiati in più rispetto agli attuali 3 milioni. E un numero di decessi che sarà inferiore a quello delle due fasi precedenti, ma comunque pesante, intorno ai 10 mila. Avremo purtroppo picchi di oltre 40 mila contagiati e 7/800 decessi al giorno».
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