Home Covid Scenario 4 cosa prevede e quando può partire in Italia

Scenario 4 cosa prevede e quando può partire in Italia

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giuseppe-conte-triste
giuseppe-conte-triste

Scenario 4 cosa prevede? Sono stati introdotti da Giuseppe Conte qualche giorno fa. C’è chi li chiama fase, chi scenario. Al momento sono i termometri di come sta andando il contagio da Coronavirus Italia. In queste ore si sta parlando di scenario 4 per l’Italia. Ma cosa significa e cosa prevede?

Come riporta l’ANSA, la curva epidemica continua a salire: i 26.831 nuovi casi registrati oggi indicano come sempre più realistico per l’Italia lo scenario 4l’ultimo piu’ grave previsto caratterizzato da una “situazione di trasmissibilità non controllata con criticità nella tenuta del sistema sanitario nel breve periodo” ed indicato nel documento “Prevenzione e risposta a Covid-19”, redatto da ministero della Salute e Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Iss).

Si avvicina cioè lo scenario più critico che, secondo il documento, si riferisce a una “una situazione non gestibile con le misure straordinarie già messe in atto”.

Scenario 4 cosa prevede e cosa significa


Fonti qualificate hanno indicato infatti all’ANSA che è molto probabile che il forte aumento dei casi abbia portato l’indice di contagio Rt (che indica le persone che possono essere contagiate da un individuo con il virus) oltre l’1,5 registrato fra il 12 e il 18 ottobre.


Di scenari ha parlato anche il coordinatore del Comitato tecnico scientifico (Cts) Agostino Miozzo: “sono allo studio tutte le misure. Oggi – ha detto a Radio Popolare – siamo entrati nello scenario 3, c’è anche lo scenario 4. Quindi, che il lockdown sia una delle ipotesi previste – generale, parziale, localizzati, o come quello che abbiamo visto a marzo – era previsto. Speravamo, auspicavamo di non arrivare a quelle ipotesi. Ma se guardiamo anche ai Paesi accanto a noi, sono purtroppo ipotesi realistiche”.


A rendere realistico il più critico degli scenari è l’aumento dei casi, che mostra ormai una progressione continua da almeno quattro settimane: da allora la curva epidemica continua a mostrare un andamento chiaramente esponenziale, con tempi di raddoppio di circa una settimana. Aumenta di riflesso il numero dei nuovi decessi, con 217 in più in 24 ore, e quello dei ricoveri nelle unità di terapia intensiva, saliti di 115 unità. “E’ un brutto segnale perché a distanza di tempo i ricoveri in terapia intensiva finiscono per pesare sulla mortalità”, ha detto il fisico Enzo Marinari, dell’Università Sapienza di Roma.


Il numero dei tamponi eseguiti ha toccato il nuovo record di 201.452 i tamponi in 24 ore, ma è un incremento che non corrisponde purtroppo alla capacità di individuare tutti i casi.
Lo indica il rapporto fra casi positivi e tamponi, del 13,3%.


“E’ un dato che indica che il tracciamento è perso: se il numero di positivi misurato è così grande, il 13,3% è un valore molto alto”, ha osservato. “In queste condizioni il numero che leggiamo per i nuovi positivi è molto inferiore a quello reale: quando i rapporti diventano così alti, molti sfuggono e il numero reale si comincia a perdere”.

conte-senato-mascherina
conte-senato-mascherina

fonte: ansa.it

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