Lockdown over 60, lo studio shock dell’ISPI. Le ultime notizie sul coronavirus dall’Italia e dal mondo 24 ore su 24 tutti gli aggiornamenti dell’ultim’ora.
Secondo l’Ispi, se costringessimo gli anziani all’isolamento protettivo salveremmo la vita di centinaia di migliaia di persone.
E’ il risultato di uno studio shock che Repubblica anticipa: secondo l’Istituto per gli studi di politica internazionale, tra le misure soft dall’efficacia dubbia ma dal costo sociale elevato adottate fino a oggi e il lockdown, che ci salvò a marzo ma che costò carissimo all’economia e a milioni di famiglie, esiste una soluzione intermedia che potrebbe salvare dal 50 al 98 per cento delle persone che morirebbero se si lasciasse correre liberamente la pandemia.
Il lockdown selettivo per classi d’età. Una soluzione che “sarebbe sbagliato ritenere un’opzione da scartare a priori” e su cui si dovrebbe aprire “una serena ma urgente discussione”.
È una strada certamente impervia: dove potrebbero mai essere isolati efficacemente gli ultraottantenni, che sono il 7,2 per cento della popolazione, o addirittura gli ultra settantenni che sono il 17,1% degli italiani? Come evitare che siano contagiati dai parenti con cui vivono o dalle persone che li assistono? Senza contare i dubbi etici sul diritto di imporre agli anziani limitazioni che riguardino loro soli, e sulla stessa legittimità di qualcosa che vada oltre al consiglio di “restare a casa al sicuro” e diventi un’imposizione sanzionabile per classe d’età.
Lockdown over 60, le parole del ricercatore Matteo Villa
Tant’è, i numeri sono impressionanti e secondo l’Ispi occorre tenerne conto: “Pur con tutti i dubbi etici e le questioni politiche – spiega l’autore dello studio, il ricercatore Matteo Villa – è una soluzione che crediamo debba essere presa in considerazione da subito, vista la fase grave in cui si trova oggi la pandemia“.
“In una pandemia – sostiene lo studio – tutte le azioni che decidiamo di compiere sono il frutto di un compromesso che soppesa rischi e benefici”.
Lasciar correre l’infezione fino all’immunità di gregge non sarebbe certo una soluzione: vorrebbe dire arrivare al contagio del 70 per cento della popolazione, il che “implicherebbe circa 42 milioni di contagiati e tra i 430.000 e i 700.000 decessi in più per il solo obiettivo di rallentare la circolazione virale”.
Un’ipotesi mai presa in esame dal governo e dalle istituzioni scientifiche, per fortuna: raddoppierebbe il numero complessivo dei morti in Italia, che nel 2019 furono 647mila.
“Senza contare – ricorda l’Ispi – la pressione sul nostro sistema sanitario: è probabile che le persone che necessiterebbero di cure in terapia intensiva sarebbero circa 110mila”.
E poi, “neanche in quel caso il virus rallenterebbe a lungo: ricerche recenti hanno dimostrato che la presenza di anticorpi decresce in pochi mesi, e ancora più rapidamente nella popolazione anziana”, la più a rischio tra chi contrae l’infezione.
Tra le briglie sciolte al virus e la costosissima arma letale del lockdown, secondo l’Ispi c’è “l’isolamento selettivo delle fasce di popolazione più a rischio, una strategia per ritardare il più possibile un nuovo provvedimento restrittivo e tragico” e per “contenere significativamente la pressione sul sistema sanitario”.
Una via “che come Paese non stiamo valutando, non ne parliamo, ma viene subito prima del lockdown”, sostiene Villa.
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