Home Covid Battiston avverte: “Peggio di ottobre. Curva contagi sale 8 volte di più”

Battiston avverte: “Peggio di ottobre. Curva contagi sale 8 volte di più”


Battiston avverte gli italiani. Il Coronavirus continua a far paura. Le varianti ormai hanno preso il sopravvento e la terza ondata è nei fatti. La conferma arriva da un professore di Fisica dell’Università di Trento, che studia l’andamento della pandemia in Italia. “I nuovi casi giornalieri – spiega Roberto Battiston a Repubblica – cresceranno per almeno altre 4 settimane. E se non si interverrà rapidamente l’incremento durerà ancora di più. Qualcosa di simile a quanto avvenuto a ottobre, quando all’improvviso l’Rt ha iniziato a crescere, passando in 3 settimane e mezzo da 1,15 a 1,85″.

“Allora però allora avevamo una serie di frecce al nostro arco per piegare la curva e riportarla a valori accettabili, cosa avvenuta ai primi di dicembre. Stiamo già usando tutti gli strumenti a disposizione: mascherine, distanziamento, vaccini, immunità di gregge di chi si è già ammalato. Però abbiamo di fronte le varianti, molto più aggressive del virus ordinario, che stanno diventando le forme più diffuse”.

Battiston avverte, le parole in merito ai casi Covid in Italia

“Le province in condizioni più gravi – prosegue Battiston a Repubblica – sono una ventina, altrettante stanno peggiorando. Nel primo gruppo ci sono Pescara, Chieti, Matera, Salerno, Imperia, Bergamo, Brescia, Ancona, Ascoli, Campobasso, Monza, Trento e buona parte della Toscana. Tra le zone che peggiorano ci sono il comune di Napoli, il Piemonte, alcune province del Friuli, Frosinone, e province lombarde come Como e Cremona. Va sottolineato che tre settimane fa in condizioni critiche c’erano solo la provincia di Perugia e quella di Bolzano. Visti i tempi di intervento e reazione, per almeno 4 settimane il numero dei nuovi positivi continuerà a crescere”.

“Ma dobbiamo agire subito per osservare gli effetti sull’Rt in 1-2 settimane. Se ritardiamo le azioni di contenimento ci fermeremo solo quando il sistema sanitario non reggerà più l’urto. Rischiamo di trovarci presto in una situazione molto peggiore di ottobre. A settembre l’Rt cominciava a salire ma avevamo 50 mila infetti, adesso sono 400 mila. Queste persone sono la benzina che può moltiplicare il fenomeno di contagio. Il fiammifero è l’Rt: se supera 1, come avviene in tante zone, l’epidemia ha un serbatoio di carburante enorme”.


fonte: affaritaliani.it

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