Home Attualità Giovanni Sebastiani, matematico CNR: “Tra 3 settimane richiuderemo”

Giovanni Sebastiani, matematico CNR: “Tra 3 settimane richiuderemo”

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Giovanni Sebastiani – Le previsioni del matematico del CNR, Giovanni Sebastiani, sulle prossime chiusure, a causa delle attuali zone gialle. Le ultime notizie dall’Italia e dal mondo aggiornate in tempo reale.

“La mia previsione è che nel giro di tre, cinque settimane saremo costretti a richiudere”. Parte da qui Giovanni Sebastiani nell’analisi dello scenario epidemiologico presente e futuro. E indica come esempio quanto sta succedendo a Bolzano – “si è riaperto prima, il numero dei contagi ha smesso prima di diminuire e ci sono segni iniziali di aumento, come per i ricoveri in terapia intensiva”.

Oggi l’Italia prova a ripartire, è il giorno delle riaperture. Il matematico dell’Istituto per le Applicazioni del Calcolo “Mauro Picone” del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (Cnr-Iac) non esita a definirle “premature”.

“Più di tutto – spiega – mi preoccupa la scuola. Si è dimostrato che, in seguito al ritorno degli studenti in presenza, l’Rt aumenta del 25% in 4 settimane, come ha ammesso anche l’Istituto Superiore di Sanità. Inoltre, a differenza di quanto avveniva l’anno scorso, oggi la trasmissione del virus coinvolge anche i bambini di età inferiore a 10 anni”. E infatti, aggiunge Sebastiani, “a gennaio la prima ad essere ripartita è stata la curva degli under 10”.

Insomma, pur con le incertezze dei modelli matematici da mettere nel conto, i numeri dell’Italia sconsigliavano di allentare le restrizioni. “Noi stiamo frenando la discesa dei contagi, entro 7-10 giorni la curva tornerà piatta e poi ricomincerà a salire – aggiunge il matematico del Cnr – Credo che la ripartenza andasse rinviata a fine maggio. In tal modo avremmo completato, somministrando gli 11 milioni di dosi mancanti, la vaccinazione degli ultra70enni, che contribuiscono all’86% della mortalità per Covid”.

Giovanni Sebastiani: “Stiamo abbattendo la mortalità ma non la circolazione del virus”

Il vaccino, già, l’elemento che differenzia la ripartenza attuale da quella dell’anno passato? Quali effetti può determinare la campagna vaccinale sull’evoluzione del virus nel nostro Paese. Qualche giorno fa il fisico dell’Università di Trento, Roberto Battiston, ha spiegato che “i contagi calano lo stesso grazie ai vaccinati e agli ex malati”.

Per Sebastiani, invece, “stiamo abbattendo la mortalità ma non la circolazione del virus, non come andrebbe fatto almeno” perché “la vaccinazione, così come la stiamo facendo, pur salvaguardando com’è sacrosanto vite umane preziose, non agisce su quanti fanno circolare il virus in modo sostanziale. E poi c’è il problema dei ragazzi”. Ancora una volta, occhi puntati sui numeri.

Al 25 aprile risulta che agli under60, le persone – in Italia sono 42 milioni – che veicolano maggiormente il virus, sono state somministrate 5 milioni e 700mila dosi. Circa 3 milioni e 600mila agli under 50 – 32 milioni e 500mila persone, 2 milioni agli under 40 – 23 milioni e 500mila persone. “Alle persone di età inferiore ai 19 anni, circa 10 milioni e 600mila persone, sono state somministrate circa 30.000 dosi, al di sotto i 16 anni non è stato vaccinato nessuno”.

Insomma, “si può assumere che chi completa la vaccinazione con le due dosi necessarie non trasmette il virus, ma una persona di 70 anni o più quante persone può incontrare, e quindi quante occasioni avrà di trasmettere il virus, rispetto a una persona di età inferiore a 50 anni?”, chiede Sebastiani. Da qui la conclusione che “così non si ferma al momento in modo sostanziale la circolazione del virus”.

“Percentuale di positivi simile a gennaio”

Con tutto quello che ne consegue. “Portare avanti la campagna vaccinale in uno scenario come il nostro, caratterizzato da un’alta circolazione del virus, è molto rischioso”, avverte il matematico del Cnr. Per due ragioni. “In primo luogo perché le persone fragili in attesa del vaccino – mi riferisco in particolare agli over70 mancanti – rischiano di essere colpite dal virus prima di essere vaccinate e dunque di morire e poi soprattutto c’è la possibilità che si sviluppino nuove varianti del virus potenzialmente resistenti al vaccino. Da uno studio israeliano sembra che contro la variante indiana il vaccino di Pfizer BioNTech abbia una risposta ridotta degli anticorpi”.

Insomma, guardia alta. Anche perché “la percentuale di positivi sui tamponi è all’8%, lo stesso livello di fine di gennaio”. Anche allora si allentò, si riaprirono le scuole. Per Sebastiani “si perse un’occasione preziosa, perché avremmo potuto far scendere la percentuale al 3% e ripristinare il tracciamento dei positivi. Sarebbe bastato disporre di nuovo per due settimane le restrizioni delle festività natalizie”. Invece si riaprì, a cominciare dalle scuole. “Per poi reintrodurre le misure quando era ormai troppo tardi e la situazione era ancora una volta sfuggita di mano”, considera il matematico.

E allora oggi che l’Italia riapre, a fronte di uno scenario poco favorevole all’abbassamento della curva, è fondamentale “limitare i danni, puntando sui comportamenti individuali, esortando le persone a rispettare le regole”, va avanti Sebastiani che tiene anche a “sfatare il falso mito che all’aperto non ci si contagi. Basta guardare quello che sta succedendo in India per rendersi conto che non è così, che se non si rispettano determinate condizioni il virus colpisce anche all’aria aperta”.

“Non andrò al ristorante per ora”

Da oggi, all’aperto, in zona gialla si può tornare al ristorante. Sebastiani per ora non ci andrà, “o almeno non come la maggior parte delle persone. Quando ci andrò, sarà con una persona sola, al massimo due, sceglierò un giorno infrasettimanale, e un posto in cui potrò rispettare la distanza necessaria dai miei commensali e dagli altri avventori, 2 metri. Inoltre, toglierò la mascherina solo quando mangio o bevo. Comprendo pienamente le esigenze dei ristoratori, con i quali sono solidale e che con altri hanno patito le conseguenze anche economiche dell’epidemia. Ma si può sempre scegliere di ordinare il pranzo o la cena al ristorante e poi mangiarle all’aperto, come i picnic degli anni ‘60-‘70 e sempre nel rispetto delle regole anti Covid”.

Perché, sottolinea il matematico del Cnr, “dobbiamo metterci in testa che siamo ancora in una situazione delicata. E la nostra vita non è ancora come quella di prima”. E poi c’è il coprifuoco, per ora mantenuto alle 22. “Per quanto riguarda la questione calda del coprifuoco – conclude Sebastiani – quello che è più importante per me, in primo luogo, è che la regola sia semplice e chiara, senza ambiguità che permettano interpretazioni personali e in secondo luogo che vengano attuate misure efficaci e massive di controllo e repressione”.

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donna-ricoverata-covid

Fonte: Huffington Post

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