Crisanti ammette – “Con il coprifuoco si dà un piccolo contributo al controllo dell’Rt“. Così il virologo Andrea Crisanti, direttore del Dipartimento di medicina molecolare dell’università di Padova, ad ‘Agorà’ su Rai3. “Il virus – spiega – si trasmette alle 8 di mattina così come alle 10 o alle 11 di sera”.
Ma siccome “più ci si incontra e più aumenta la probabilità di trasmissione” di Covid-19. E impatti sull’Rt “anche piccoli“, derivanti dalle diverse misure, “se sommati insieme ci aiutano a uscire da questa situazione prima possibile”.
“Io capisco le difficoltà a comprendere il problema del coprifuoco”, riconosce Crisanti. Ma il punto, precisa, è che “la trasmissione è esclusivamente un problema di probabilità: più ci si incontra e più aumenta la probabilità di trasmissione“. Quindi “ogni azione conta – avverte l’esperto – Conta indossare la mascherina, conta il distanziamento, conta evitare assembramenti e conta sicuramente la probabilità di incontrarsi in condizioni non protette per più ore”.
Crisanti aggiunge poi che “è ancora troppo presto” per valutare gli effetti delle riaperture sull’andamento della pandemia in Italia. Ma “questa è una corsa tra la vaccinazione e il virus”. Per questo “penso che, se avessimo aspettato un paio di settimane in più, non mesi ma 2-3 settimane, probabilmente la dinamica sarebbe stata più favorevole”.
Crisanti ammette a cosa serve il coprifuoco
“Noi dobbiamo guardare i dati di Israele e Inghilterra, che ci dicono che con il vaccino se ne può uscire. Allora perché far correre un rischio inutile a persone fragili per non aspettare 2-3 settimane? Non si trattava di aspettare mesi, ma 2-3 settimane – ripete Crisanti – e arrivare in una situazione di sicurezza”.
Quanto alla possibilità di un agosto più libero Crisanti pensa che “nel giro di 2-3 mesi, potremo stare in una situazione molto simile a quella dell’Inghilterra”. “Poi ovviamente – avverte – c’è la sfida di rimanere tali”, mantenendo il traguardo raggiunto.
Infine, osserva il virologo, “non c’è dubbio che la dinamica dei decessi riflette l’effetto delle vaccinazioni. Sicuramente” anche in Italia “siamo di fronte a una diminuzione significativa della letalità, che certamente è da attribuire alle vaccinazioni fatte nelle Rsa e tra gli anziani”.
“Che il vaccino funziona non ci sono dubbi – aggiunge – Dobbiamo soltanto cercare di vaccinare più persone possibili, facendo correre loro meno rischi possibili”.
fonte: adnkronos.com
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