duomo-durante-lockdown
Covid Italia – Allentare le restrizioni quando l’incidenza delle infezioni da Covid-19 è ancora alta può portare rapidamente a un nuovo picco dei casi e quindi dei ricoveri, anche se l’Rt è inferiore a 1.
A sostenerlo uno studio, basato sui dati della ‘prima ondata’ dell’epidemia, dei ricercatori di Fondazione Bruno Kessler (FBK), Istituto superiore di sanità (Iss) e Istituto nazionale assicurazione infortuni sul lavoro (Inail), appena pubblicato sulla rivista Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States.
Nella ricerca è stato usato un modello di trasmissione del virus per stimare l’impatto di diverse strategie per contrastarlo, introducendo anche la stima del rischio nei diversi settori produttivi in maniera innovativa.
I risultati di questa ricerca sono stati utilizzati per definire i possibili scenari a seguito delle riaperture della fase 2 e per definire i possibili scenari e interventi nella fase autunnale. Per quanto riguarda la tempistica con cui vengono riattivati i contatti sociali, la ricerca mette in evidenza che un anticipo prematuro delle riaperture può incidere notevolmente sull’andamento dell’epidemia.
fonte: repubblica.it
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