Professor Lopalco, epidemiologo e assessore alla Sanità della Regione Puglia, è intervenuto a ‘Un giorno da pecora’ su Rai Radio 1 per parlare della situazione Covid in Italia. Ecco le sue parole ad ADNKronos: “Ci sarebbe stata comunque una seconda ondata” di Covid-19, anche se avessimo allungato di qualche mese il lockdown del marzo scorso, “perché comunque questo virus continua a circolare in maniera completamente nascosta. Ormai è un virus endemico, non andrà più via“.
“Il vaccino potrà cambiare il nostro modo di vivere. E’ probabile che con il vaccino metteremo in sicurezza le persone più fragili e potremo vivere un po’ più tranquillamente. E poi comunque, a mano a mano che arriveranno le nuove ondate che continueranno a susseguirsi, saranno sempre più lievi”.
Ma quante ondate dobbiamo attenderci? “Non voglio spaventare”, ma “l’influenza fa un’ondata l’anno. Probabilmente sarà così anche per il coronavirus” Sars-CoV-2: “Diventerà una malattia stagionale autunno-invernale”.
Professor Lopalco avverte sulla durata del Covid-19
“Fosse stato per me le scuole non le avrei aperte, già a settembre – ha detto ancora – Magari le avrei tenute aperte a luglio e agosto”.
In Puglia per Rt “ora siamo al di sotto dell’1,5, all’1,44”, e l’indice di contagiosità “è stabile”, sottolinea l’epidemiologo, invitando tuttavia a spiegare bene cosa significa avere un Rt pari a 1,4 per un’infezione come Covid-19.
“Per fare un esempio in una stagione influenzale il picco si manifesta con un Rt di 1,2: noi siamo a 1,4 con una malattia che comunque provoca polmonite”.
La Puglia deve rimanere arancione o diventare rossa come chiedono i medici? “Se ci atteniamo ai famosi 21 indicatori, all’algoritmo calcolato dal cervellone, noi siamo arancioni. I dati sono quelli e tra l’altro stiamo facendo uno sforzo per ripulirli, affinché siano chiari e trasparenti”.
“La Germania, che ha terapie intensive dappertutto, sovradimensionate rispetto a qualunque altro sistema sanitario, ha fatto il lockdown. Purtroppo qualunque sistema sanitario, nel momento in cui cresce l’ondata pandemica, a un certo punto necessariamente si blocca. L’unico modo per bloccare l’avanzata del virus è quello di limitare i contatti sociali, non ne usciamo”.
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